Before the Chiefs’ reign of terror in the AFC began, it was generally a three-team race in the conference.
The Patriots, Ravens and Broncos combined to win eight straight AFC championships from 2011-18. With Kansas City eliminated from the postseason, those three teams are among the favorites in the AFC heading down the stretch run.
The Patriots and Ravens meet on Sunday Night Football. First-year coach Mike Vrabel is very familiar with the rivalry with Baltimore, which is still looking to win a tight AFC North race with the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Broncos, meanwhile, are on an 11-game win streak entering a matchup with Jacksonville in Week 16.
Of course, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are in the mix, too, and Houston is heating up at the right time in the AFC South.
Those are the go-to matchups in a loaded Week 16 that also features Rams-Seahawks on Thursday Night Football and Eagles-Commanders and Bears-Packers opposite the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday.
Straight up: 146-77-1 (11-5 in Week 15)
Against the spread: 107-114-3 (5-11 in Week 15)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 16. Odds according to Caesars.
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NFL picks, predictions for Week 16
- Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Prime Video
The Rams are averaging 30 points per game and have scored 40-plus points each of the last two weeks but might be without Davante Adams (hamstring) on a short week. This game could determine home-field advantage in the NFC. Seattle had four turnovers in the first meeting – a 21-19 loss. The Rams have won the last two meetings at Seattle.
Pick: Rams 23, Seahawks 20
MORE: Rams retake top spot in Sporting News’ latest NFL power rankings
- Philadelphia Eagles (-6) at Washington Commanders
Saturday, 5 p.m., Fox
The Eagles had their get-well game in a 31-0 shutout against the Raiders in Week 15. Saquon Barkley and Tank Bigsby combined for 135 rushing yards. Washington broke an eight-game losing streak in Week 15 – but turnovers remain a problem. It’s these teams’ first meeting this season.
Pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 17
- Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
Saturday, 8:20 p.m., Fox
What a difference a week makes. The Bears are back in first place, and the Packers lost Micah Parsons (ACL) in a Week 15 loss to Denver. Bo Nix had 302 passing yards and four TDs against Green Bay in Week 15. Caleb Williams should have success behind the running game – and Chicago takes control of the NFC North.
Pick: Bears 28, Packers 26
MORE: Why Micah Parsons injury is bad news for Packers’ Super Bowl chances
- Buffalo Bills (-10) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Browns have averaged 13.3 points through a three-game losing streak, and despite Myles Garrett (21.5 sacks) being on the chase for the single-season record the defense is bad, too. Cleveland is 0-2 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more, and the Bills’ offense is hot with Josh Allen.
Pick: Bills 28, Browns 20
MORE: Josh Allen, Bills stun Patriots with comeback win in Foxboro
- Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
This line might drop to a pick ’em before kickoff. The Cowboys are on the brink of playoff elimination. The Chargers are finding ways to win games. Justin Herbert has taken 14 sacks the last three games – all Los Angeles wins. The Chargers are 3-1 ATS as a road underdog under Jim Harbaugh the last two seasons.
Pick: Chargers 28, Cowboys 25
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Patrick Mahomes (ACL) is out, so Gardner Minshew will get the start for the Chiefs. Titans quarterback Cam Ward averages 144 passing yards the last two weeks, but he’s taken just one sack with one interception. Where will the Chiefs’ focus be after being eliminated from the playoffs?
Pick: Chiefs 24, Titans 16
MORE: How Patrick Mahomes’ ACL recovery time compares to others
- Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Bengals’ disappointing season continues, and Joe Burrow has thrown four interceptions in Cincinnati’s last two games. What does this mean for the future of Zac Taylor? The Dolphins have taken the opposite trajectory with Mike McDaniel, and they can take advantage of the worst rushing defense in the NFL.
Pick: Dolphins 27, Bengals 24
- New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Saints have a chance to build a three-game winning streak. Jets quarterback Brady Cook has five interceptions and has taken nine sacks in two games. New Orleans rookie quarterback Tyler Shough takes a lot of sacks, too, but he’s managed to limit turnovers.
Pick: Saints 20, Jets 17
MORE: Updated draft order after Week 15 NFL results
- Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Vikings are improving around JJ McCarthy, who has five TDs, one interception and a 66% completion percentage in his last two starts. The Giants are on a seven-game losing streak and they are 0-2 ATS as an underdog of three points or less.
Pick: Vikings 24, Giants 17
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Who wants to win the NFC South? The Bucs and Panthers are both stuck at .500, and Tampa Bay has lost five of its last six games. Carolina also has been hit or miss and is coming off a loss against the Saints. The Panthers are 6-2 S/U in games decided by seven points or less. The Buccaneers are 6-3 S/U in the same situation.
Pick: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 26
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos (-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Broncos continue to roll under coach Sean Payton, but the Jaguars will be an interesting test. The Jaguars have won five in a row, and Trevor Lawrence has nine TDs and no interceptions in his last three games. Jacksonville is 0-3 S/U when Lawrence takes more three sacks. Will the protection hold up against Denver?
Pick: Broncos 30, Jaguars 24
MORE: Trevor Lawrence delivers five-touchdown performance to continue hot stretch
- Atlanta Falcons (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
The Cardinals have allowed 42.5 points per game in their last two losses. The Falcons are a road favorite. Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins is coming off a 373-yard, three-TD performance. A last-minute run at a NFC South title is probably a reach, but we like the Falcons in this spot.
Pick: Falcons 31, Cardinals 23
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (-7)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Lions are still in the NFC playoff hunt, but they’ll have to knock off an old foe in Aaron Rodgers, who has kept the Steelers in the AFC North mix. The Lions have not beat the Steelers since a 19-16 victory on Nov. 26, 1998 – the “Coin Flip” game with Jerome Bettis. Detroit changes that with a strong running game led by Jahmyr Gibbs.
Pick: Lions 34, Steelers 29
- Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans (-14)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
The Texans lead the NFL in scoring defense (16.3 ppg.). The Raiders are last in points per game (14.0). That alone is enough to pick the Texans, who have the second-longest win streak in the NFL at six games. The Raiders are 0-3 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more, and they have been shut out 31-0 twice in that situation.
Pick: Texans 23, Raiders 10
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture heading into Week 16
- New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
A great Sunday Night Football stage for two AFC playoff contenders. The Patriots have allowed 134.8 rushing yards per game the last four weeks, and that is a major concern against the Ravens. Lamar Jackson has seven carries or less in his last five games. Will that change in this matchup?
Pick: Ravens 28, Patriots 21
- San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
Who knew we would get Philip Rivers on Monday Night Football? That’s sure to be a talking point, and the Colts are trying to hang on in the AFC playoff race. The Colts are 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season – and they are 2-0 S/U as a home underdog.
Pick: 49ers 25, Colts 23
MORE: How Philip Rivers performed in his return to the NFL after five seasons
