NFL Picks and Props for Week 15
The 2025 National Football League continues Sunday in Week 15, with all of the bye weeks are in the rear-view mirror. This is the real deal now, as we’re getting into the final run to the playoffs, and, eventually, the Super Bowl.
Like in recent weeks, weather should be a factor, whether it is precipitation, or just downright frigid temperatures. It’s not even winter yet, and the temperatures in some venues are already bone-chilling cold. Let’s get started!
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Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
The Cleveland Browns and Chicago Bears are certainly not strangers to cold weather, but with temperatures forecast for just 9 degrees Fahrenheit at kickoff, with wins blowing 10-12 MPH, the cold temperatures will certainly play a factor, even though there is no wintry precipitation in the forecast.
The Browns have allowed 2,521 passing yards, ranking No. 5 in the NFL, while giving up just 14 touchdown passes with 11 interceptions. Cleveland has a poor win-loss record this season, but the defense hasn’t been the issue, more often than not, although it was surprisingly easy for the lowly Tennessee Titans to move the ball last week in 31-29 win over the Browns in Cleveland.
Looking to the Bears, QB Caleb Williams has managed 193 or fewer passing yards in three of his past four games, with the lone exception, a 239-yard effort against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 12. Williams’ passing total is set at 191.5 yards, and he should come in well under that total, especially as the Bears tend to lean upon the emerging dynamic duo of RBs D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who have brought back the black and blue Bears football that fans absolutely love.
In addition, it’s the Bears could have a big lead early, and therefore the passing game will likely be powered down, with more leaning upon the run game. All signs point to a Williams Under result.
On the flip side, Browns QB Shedeur Sanders ripped it up with 364 passing yards, three touchdown passes, one interception and 29 rushing yards with a score against Tennessee. The Bears have allowed big passing totals, and they’ve given up 2,957 yards through the air with 20 TDs and just six INTs.
Again, Chicago is expected to grab a big lead early. That might cause the Browns to abandon the run sooner rather than later, going to the air more often. As such, Sanders should be able to reach his Over in passing yards, although it will be more stat-padding, than a steady, efficient attack throughout the afternoon. As a prop bettor, though, who really cares how it gets done?
The Bears haven’t been poor against opposing tight ends, but they’re more middle of the road. Chicago has given up 69 receptions, 728 yards and five touchdowns to tight ends this season, so there is room for Browns rookie TE Harold Fannin Jr. to shine.
Harold Fannin rolled up eight receptions, 114 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets against the Titans last week. He has developed quite the rapport with Sanders, who has leaned upon the rookie tight end when the first sign of trouble comes. But, Sanders isn’t a stranger to the big play already, even if a lot of times it is due to catch and run by the receivers. He has 10 passing plays of 20 or more yards, and four passing plays of 50 or more yards.
In any event, we’re going to go high on Fannin again, and his totals aren’t seriously inflated despite his huge Week 14 percentage. Take advantage.
Best Prop Pick: Bears QB Caleb Williams – Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns QB Shedeur Sanders – Over 181.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. – Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
It’s 2025, and I’m writing about Philip Rivers? Wow.
The Indianapolis Colts are, obviously, super desperate. Not desperate enough to call that loudmouth clown Cam Newton, but desperate enough. They coaxed Rivers out of retirement, mainly because he still knows Shane Steichen’s offense.
The Colts lost QB Daniel Jones to an Achilles’ injury last week, and then, subsequently, also saw rookie Riley Leonard exit due to a knee injury. While Leonard doesn’t carry an injury designation into the game, it’s going to be the Rivers show. Again. In 2025. Unbelievable.
It’s quite a bit pricey, but it’s almost a certainty that Rivers is victimized for at least one interception by a Seahawks passing defense which has recorded 12 interceptions this season. Rusty, timing issues, etc. will be a problem for Rivers, and the Seahawks will certainly use all kinds of disguises trying to mix him up.
And, while I don’t think Rivers comes back out of retirement to drop a 300-yard passing day on the Seahawks, Seattle has allowed 3,177 yards, 8.9 yards per passing attempt and 22 TDs, so it can be susceptible to the big play.
Many of the Colts receivers have had their projections dropped down significantly, so there is some value here if we pick the right ones. Rookie TE Tyler Warren certainly never worked with Rivers before this week. In fact, when Rivers began his career in 2004 with the San Diego Chargers, Warren was likely still in diapers.
The rookie has rolled up 60 receptions, 699 yards and four touchdowns, although he has tailed off a little bit lately. He has 26 or fewer yards in three of the past five games. But, like Fannin above, Warren should see a lot of work as a safety valve. He has four or more receptions in 10 of 13 games, although two of those games without 4+ grabs came in the past two games.
Last week in Jacksonville was a throwaway, though, with the QB revolving door, and prior to that was a matchup with the suffocating Houston Texans defense. Against the Seahawks, especially with a QB just not positioned to go downfield, Warren will see frequent targets, and plenty of yardage, too. Plus, Seattle allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs, allowing 88 receptions, 933 yards and five touchdowns.
And, looking to the Seahawks, we have a special situation at tight end to exploit. Rookie Elijah Arroyo has been ruled out due to injury, and third-stringer Eric Saubert carries a questionable tag into the game. As such, AJ Barner should eat up all of the targets against an Indianapolis defense which allows the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Indy has allowed 82 receptions, 892 yards and five scores to tight ends in 2025, so take Barner and enjoy.
Best Prop Pick: Colts QB Philip Rivers – 1+ Interception (-176 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 3.5 Total Receptions (-148 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Seahawks TE AJ Barner Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Plays – Week 15
Best Prop Pick: Bears QB Caleb Williams – Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns QB Shedeur Sanders – Over 181.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. – Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Colts QB Philip Rivers – 1+ Interception (-176 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 3.5 Total Receptions (-148 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Seahawks TE AJ Barner Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Parlays – Week 15
Three-Player Browns at Bears Props Parlay (+392 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Best Prop Pick: Bears QB Caleb Williams – Under 191.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Browns QB Shedeur Sanders – Over 181.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Browns TE Harold Fannin Jr. – Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Three-Player Colts at Seahawks Props Parlay (+265 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Best Prop Pick: Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Colts TE Tyler Warren Over 3.5 Total Receptions (-148 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Seahawks TE AJ Barner Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
