What We Learned from Atlanta’s 29-28 win

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1. Falcons pull off shocking upset in spite of countless mistakes. The Carolina Panthers might have to add the Falcons to their Christmas card list. Trailing by 14 points with less than 10 minutes remaining, the Falcons engineered two touchdown drives and — after the Bucs failed to shut the door — drove 45 yards to kick the game-winning field goal as time expired. Kirk Cousins overcame a final-drive fumble that was ruled simultaneous possession, keeping the ball with Atlanta. Cousins threw for 134 yards in the fourth quarter alone, keeping his mastery of the Bucs’ defense alive from last season, when he gutted them for 785 yards and eight TDs. Cousins threw for 373 yards and three TD passes on Thursday, all to Kyle Pitts, and showed he still has a little magic left. The way they played for most of the game, the Falcons had absolutely no business winning this contest — only their second victory since Week 6 — but somehow found a way. 
2. Just a crushing loss for the stumbling Bucs. Leading by two scores early in the fourth quarter, the Bucs appeared to be putting the Falcons away and making them pay for their countless mistakes throughout the game. But Tampa Bay’s defense allowed the Falcons to drive twice for touchdowns, with Baker Mayfield’s interception an absolute killer with just over eight minutes left. Even though the Falcons missed two two-point tries, Atlanta stopped Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense with just under two minutes left and drove 45 yards to set up Zane Gonzalez‘ game-winning kick. This loss (the Bucs’ sixth in seven games since the bye) helped push the Panthers into first place heading into Sunday’s matchup at the Saints, and it suddenly puts the Bucs in real danger of missing the postseason for the first time since the 2019 season. Not even Mike Evans‘ impressive return to the field could spur the Buccaneers enough. The division will still come down to the Bucs’ two matchups with Carolina, but with the way they’re playing, you have to say the Panthers have the edge now.
3. Pitts made money with career-best game. One of the more intriguing 2026 free agents is helping his cause to get paid in the offseason, and Thursday was his best game yet. Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts registered career highs in receptions (11), receiving yards (166) and touchdowns (three), lifting the Falcons to the stunning win. Pitts had two of his three scores in the first half, helping Atlanta take a 14-13 lead into the break, and his 7-yard TD catch — with his keister barely touching in the end zone before his elbow hit out — with 3:34 left cut the Bucs’ lead to two points. Atlanta faced a third-and-28 on the final drive, but Pitts’ 14-yard catch at least made the fourth down manageable, with David Sills (who dropped a would-be TD earlier) snagging a 21-yarder on fourth-and-14 to put the Falcons in business. But the story on the night was Pitts, who was shredding the Bucs even after they issued extra defensive attention his way. The 25-year-old hasn’t produced as expected — he had one TD coming into the game — but has been on a recent hot streak and could parlay that into a big March payday.
4. Pass protection let the Bucs down. Baker Mayfield has to take responsibility for his un-pressured interception in the fourth quarter, but he was under fire for most of the night Thursday. Mayfield was sacked five times, and that number would have been higher had it not been for Atlanta penalties wiping other sacks out. The Bucs’ interior OL trio of Mike Jordan, Dan Feeney and Graham Barton really struggled to handle the Falcons’ rush inside all night, creating some muddy pockets on a field that looked pretty chewed up to begin with. All of that disrupted the timing of the Bucs’ offense, even with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan back in the lineup — the first time all season they had a full complement of wide receivers. Evans, McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Chris Godwin all made big plays, but the Bucs failed to stick with the run game and Mayfield’s late pick cut deeply. 
5. Falcons won in spite of record penalty night. It’s incredible to think how the Falcons won this game in spite of repeatedly shooting themselves in the feet. It would almost be easier to list the plays on which the Falcons were not flagged Thursday night. They finished with 19 accepted penalties — a Falcons record and the most in an NFL game this season — including 13 flags through the first 37-plus minutes. They had two sacks of Baker Mayfield erased on defensive holds by A.J. Terrell. A hold wiped out a 30-yard Bijan Robinson run. Dee Alford’s illegal contact call on a third-and-13 incompletion kept a drive alive, setting up a Bucs TD. Cousins also was flagged for intentional grounding, knocking the Falcons out of field-goal range. Throw in David Sills’ dropped bomb, Robinson’s fumble at the Atlanta 25-yard line (his second in as many games) and two missed two-pointers, and it’s hard to figure out how the Falcons were victorious. Darnell Mooney also fumbled inside the red zone, and yet Atlanta came away with it — in spite of three orange jerseys swarming around the loose ball. The Falcons tempted fate, but somehow the football gods were on their side Thursday. 

Next Gen Stats Insight for Falcons-Buccaneers (via NFL Pro): The Falcons’ win probability was as low as 4.8% with 13:29 left in the fourth quarter (trailing, 28-14) in their 29-28 comeback win over the Buccaneers.

NFL Research: Falcons edge James Pearce Jr. now has the franchise rookie record for most sacks in a season with eight.