No spoilers if you haven’t seen the new “Superman” yet, but it’s been six months … and it takes a lot to kill Superman. Turns out it’s not possible (and there’s a cute dog) … which brings us to Josh Allen.
The Cincinnati Bengals had him on the ropes last week, but they wanted to keep throwing the ball with the lead in the fourth quarter. And now, Allen’s kryptonite, Patrick Mahomes, is all but eliminated from the playoffs.
Cue the music.
The first order of business in an Allen Super Bowl run is avenging an October loss to the New England Patriots. The Bills, like every other team other than the Los Angeles Rams, are flawed — they don’t have any receivers Allen can trust, and they can’t stop the run — but at least they have been busy tweaking and adapting since that first loss to the Patriots.
The Bills run the ball well and have used play-action on a higher percentage of their dropbacks over the past two weeks (48 percent) than any other team in the NFL. Otherwise, Allen will complete short passes (his longest to a receiver Sunday was 17 yards) or take off running himself (78 yards against the Bengals, 12 touchdowns on the season).
A win by Allen’s Bills on Sunday would essentially end Patriots quarterback Drake Maye’s MVP chances (Matthew Stafford is likely going to win anyway). And it would definitely help us finally get over .500 against the spread for the season, which might deserve some theme music as well.
Last week’s record: 7-7 against the spread, 3-2 on best bets
Season record: 101-101-6 against the spread, 34-36 on best bets
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5) | 8:15 p.m. (ET) Thursday, Amazon Prime
Baker Mayfield’s shoulder must be worse than he is letting on, as he is coming off his fourth straight game with fewer than 200 passing yards — the longest drop in his roller-coaster career. But I can’t roll with Kirk Cousins on a short week, especially when the Falcons’ special teams crew is bad enough to screw up even a decent Cousins outing.
Besides, Mike Evans is back for the Bucs. Mayfield ranked fourth in passing yards per game (256.5) and EPA per dropback (0.3) in the first six weeks; he was 23rd in passing yards (169.0) and 37th in EPA per dropback (-0.1) in the last seven games without Evans.
The pick: Buccaneers
Las Vegas Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-11.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
Pouring one out for the Positivity Rabbit. I would never have picked the Eagles last week if I knew they were resorting to large inflatables in the locker room to cheer players up. Man, they lost to a quarterback Monday who was playing with a broken hand, had two fumbles and an interception while throwing for 139 yards.
Now, the Eagles are averaging 16.2 points per game over the past five, and you want me to lay 11.5?!? Coming off a short-week, physical, overtime game on the West Coast? Are the Raiders that bad? I guess so. … Just hope Pete Carroll doesn’t kick a field goal down 14 on the final play.
The pick: Eagles
Buffalo Bills (-1) at New England Patriots | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
A couple of reasons I like the Bills besides the whole Josh Allen Superman cape thing: 1) The Patriots’ offensive line is missing some parts since beating the Bills two months ago; 2) the Patriots miss defensive tackle Milton Williams (and nose tackle Khyiris Tonga) even more, as they are last in the NFL in run defense success rate the past four games, giving up 4.9 yards a pop.
The pick: Bills
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-9.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
I’ve been yelling how much I love the Texans’ defense since July, so it’s funny how often I pick against them. Hilarious. … This week, I hate the spot. Coming off wins over the Bills, Colts and Chiefs, the Texans are supposed to be locked into film of Jacoby Brissett and Bam Knight? The Cardinals just got blown out by the Rams and are due for one of their plucky close losses — seven by four points or fewer — especially if young defensive stud Walter Nolen, who returned to practice Wednesday, is back.
The pick: Cardinals
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Cincinnati Bengals | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
We’ve been riding shotgun while the Ravens have lost four straight against the spread, but we are ready to pivot now. Lamar Jackson is starting to move around better, and they almost came back to beat the Steelers last week.
Everyone knows the Bengals are the worst in the world (yes, including other continents) at covering tight ends, so the Ravens’ ridiculous $39 million Mark Andrews extension will look good for a day. Plus, Baltimore has dropped from 74.2 percent to 44.9 at converting red zone opportunities into touchdowns this season — and Santa Claus wears orange, as the Bengals have allowed TDs on 64 percent of opponent red zone drives (28th in NFL).
The pick: Ravens
Lamar Jackson, left, and the Ravens lost to the Bengals two weeks ago, but things could go differently this time around. (Ishika Samant / Getty Images)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
The Chiefs are tied for second in the league in dropped passes (24), but we think they can finally exhale now that they have been all but eliminated. And their defense looked great in the loss to the Texans.
The Chargers, meanwhile, just lost yet another offensive tackle — they were last in the league in pass-block win rate and 31st in run-block win rate in Week 14 — and travel on a short week after a very physical, overtime win.
The pick: Chiefs
Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-7.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
It’s supposed to be 10 degrees with wind chill around minus-10 at Soldier Field. We’ll lay the points, considering the 3-10 Browns just got run over by the Titans (who ranked 31st in rushing) and there is a huge coaching and quarterback mismatch.
The pick: Bears
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
Jaxson Dart runs wild again, and this week it’s OK, as the bad Commanders linebackers need Segways to be able to make plays. The secondary isn’t good either, so the Giants’ offensive line will give Dart time to make some throws downfield as well. The Commanders are toast, and not even Marcus Mariota can lead them back to cover the spread here.
The pick: Giants
New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-13.5) | 1 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
The Jaguars have won five of six, and though overtime wins over the Raiders and Cardinals don’t impress me much, you have to give them credit. The addition of Jakobi Meyers has been huge, giving the offense some consistency and freeing up Brian Thomas Jr. deep. Their defense is solid, too. This is the most the Jaguars have been favored by in a game since 2007, but I will wait until the playoffs for the clock to strike 12 on Trevor Lawrence and company.
The pick: Jaguars
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
The lowly Saints actually handled the 7-6 Panthers pretty easily in the first meeting, but I have no interest in backing a sweep — even with the trap line of 2.5. Especially when no one knows how Bryce Young will look from week to week.
The pick: Panthers
Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
In a month, Daniel Jones went from locking in a huge, new contract to playing with a broken leg — turns out, that’s not a great idea — to grandpa Philip Rivers walking in and asking him if he can have Jones’ jersey number. What a brutal sport. The Colts were actually in the game against the Jaguars last week when Jones went down, but Jonathan Taylor fumbled and then was stuffed on fourth-and-1, and the rout was on. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks improve to 11-3 ATS.
The pick: Seahawks
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
The 49ers seemed to really enjoy their late bye week, and they have no intention of ruining their 9-4 march through injuries by napping against the Titans. Tennessee, on the other hand, might be a little satisfied coming off its second win of the season. The Titans have been walloped by the Broncos, Texans and Colts on the road by an average score of 28-9.
The pick: 49ers
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, CBS
The Packers are smart. When Bears cornerback Kyler Gordon injured his groin in pregame warmups last week, Jordan Love attacked, finishing 7 of 7 for 150 yards and three touchdowns when throwing to slot receivers. And it was still a close game. The Broncos rank seventh in the NFL in success rate against pass attempts to slot receivers (51 percent), and their pass rush should force back-foot Love into some mistakes.
Denver has won 10 straight, the past five by a combined 17 points. Only the 1986 Giants had a lower point differential (15) in a five-game win streak. They won the Super Bowl.
The pick: Broncos
Detroit Lions at Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) | 4:25 p.m. (ET) Sunday, Fox
While on the topic of MVPs, can we get some odds that Jahmyr Gibbs will break the 12-year QB stranglehold on the trophy in the next two to three years?
We were strongly considering taking the Rams and laying the points here, though, as Puka Nacua looks healthy again, and Kyren Williams and his Mini-Me, Blake Corum, have become quite the 1-2 running punch. But we looked it up, and the prideful Lions rank second in the NFL in yards per rush allowed since Week 10 (3.6). And … they have Gibbs.
The pick: Lions
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-6) | 8:20 p.m. (ET) Sunday, NBC
The twists and turns this season … the Vikings are the first team to get shut out, then shut out an opponent in its next game since the 1992 Broncos. The Cowboys probably would have beaten the Lions last week if CeeDee Lamb didn’t get a concussion in the second quarter. He was limited in practice Wednesday, but we are certain that free-agent-to-be George Pickens will bounce back strong after his effort last week was called out.
The pick: Cowboys
Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5) | 8:15 p.m. ET (Monday), ABC/ESPN
Aaron Rodgers, 42, threw the ball so well against the Ravens that he looked as if he had gone to Germany overnight and gotten some blood spinners. He was 3 of 3 for 121 yards on passes of 20-plus air yards, throws that were not part of the offense in the first 13 weeks. He said he just woke up feeling great — and what are the odds of that happening two weeks in a row?
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been consistent, rushing for 160-plus yards in four consecutive games for the first time since 1977. Mike McDaniel might be quirky, but he can sure draw up some run plays. Miami ranks among the top 10 in rush attempts (114) and rush yards (491) to the left, and Pittsburgh allowed a season-high 79 yards on nine carries to the left last week.
The pick: Dolphins
Best bets: The holy trinity of Mahomes, Allen and Jackson are easy money, as the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens take care of business and remind fans of the good ol’ days. We would have taken the Bears here, but the weather makes that game a crapshoot, so we’ll roll with the Buccaneers and Giants at home as the other two picks.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Rodgers wakes up achy, and the Steelers look like they did two weeks ago, while Darren Waller begins a storybook fantasy playoffs run and the Dolphins cash in at +155.
— TruMedia research courtesy of Jason Starrett.
