ORLANDO, Fla. — Winter Meetings fireworks included the Edwin Díaz, Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso signings, but the main activity this week was more centered around front offices talking and negotiating than it was about getting trades and signings done.
The opportunity to meet face-to-face with every manager and head of baseball operations only comes once a year and it makes the Winter Meetings so valuable for covering the sport. I also think if they extended the meetings one more day, there would have been more deals consummated because some reportedly got close, and then everyone jumped on airplanes after the Rule 5 draft on Wednesday afternoon, which interrupted momentum for closing those deals.
So even though we didn’t see a wave of trades and signings this week, there was plenty of action. Here are my takeaways on the most important developments at the Winter Meetings:
Pete Alonso’s good outcome
Takeaway: Alonso got what he wanted. It just took two contracts to do it
Last year, the prevailing sentiment was that Alonso would never get the six years, $180 million he was seeking, and in the short term, they were right when he settled for a two-year, $54 million deal to return to the Mets that included an opt-out clause that he exercised. However, his second trip into free agency finally netted him the security he was looking for when he landed the five-year, $155 million pact with the Orioles.
So, what did he really end up with? His new contract combined with the $30 million he received from the Mets in 2025 pencils out to six years and $185 million — even more than he was looking for a year ago. Credit his agent Scott Boras for getting it done with a creative short-term-to-long-term approach, his initial “pillow” with the Mets leading to the O’s deal.
Now we’ll see if Boras Corp. can get a similar result for another client, Alex Bregman, who signed a similar “pillow” contract with the Red Sox last offseason and is now back on the market seeking long-term security. The Cubs, Red Sox and Tigers appear to be the most interested at this point, but there are others with interest as well.
Mets mess
Takeaway: The Mets have ruined their clubhouse, alienated their fans and it may be too late to fix
One of the things that really stood out to me at Mets camp in spring training was how good the clubhouse culture was. Three players who really stood out in that regard were Brandon Nimmo, Díaz and Alonso, among others. It’s really hard to fathom that all three have either been traded or allowed to leave in free agency this winter.
The Nimmo trade did bring back Marcus Semien, who is a culture-builder himself. However, he’s 35 years old and in decline. When the Mets signed Devin Williams before Díaz agreed to his deal, it made it easier to say a quick goodbye without giving the Mets a chance to match his offer with the Dodgers. Alonso told us last year that the Mets didn’t respect the fact he played 162 games a year even when he was banged up, didn’t cherish his power numbers, and instead focused on the fact that he might not age well and is a below-average defender at first base.
There isn’t yet science that can 100 percent correctly predict when each individual player declines, and although Years 4 and 5 of the Alonso deal will be risky and he’ll be DHing at some point in the next three years, the Orioles can count on games played and 120 homers over that span. In terms of defense, the O’s know he picks and scoops and his bat will more than make up for whatever he gives back defensively in terms of range. Plus, his positive energy and ability to play in New York should not be taken for granted. The same is true for Nimmo and Díaz.
It’s OK if David Stearns wants to build the Mets like he did the Brewers and win with run prevention, athleticism, defense and pitching. However, keep in mind, not everyone can play in New York. It is a particularly difficult environment for young prospects who will be dealing with at times overwhelming media and fan scrutiny, especially if they struggle. The GM job is much different in New York than it is in a smaller market. Big-market teams need superstars that will perform predictably rather than betting heavily on young players to develop.
The Mets committed $765 million to Juan Soto and now have let his lineup protector in Alonso go. Mets fans will get to watch Soto be pitched around because of it. He could walk 150 times next season.
The Mets could pivot and make it work by signing Kyle Tucker and either Bregman or Bo Bichette and then focus on pitching and land Framber Valdez and Michael King. That type of aggressiveness is what New York teams need. However, it appears the Mets and Stearns are going to do it their way, and I certainly hope it works for them just like I hope my lottery ticket hits tomorrow.
The Rangers are listening on Corey Seager. (Jerome Miron / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
Big-name buzz
Takeaway: Big names are being tossed around in trade discussions more than usual
There were a lot of big names being talked about in trades at the meetings. Here’s just some of the rumblings:
• The Rangers are listening on Corey Seager, the Diamondbacks on Ketel Marte and the Phillies are begging someone to take Nick Castellanos.
• While the Tigers probably won’t trade Tarik Skubal, they are taking offers. The Brewers are in discussions on Freddy Peralta, the Mets will trade Kodai Senga or David Peterson and the Marlins have both Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara available.
• The Cardinals will move Brendan Donovan, the Giants will listen on Bryce Eldridge, the Padres are shopping Jake Cronenworth and Nick Pivetta, the Astros are trying to move Christian Walker and Jake Meyers, the Royals will move a starter for a power-hitting left fielder and the Red Sox will trade Jarren Duran if they get the right corner infielder or starting pitcher.
You get the point — a lot of big names are being discussed, which could lead to some huge deals between now and spring training.
No. 1 starter market
Takeaway: Tarik Skubal is probably going nowhere, but Freddy Peralta will probably be dealt
Behind the scenes, Tigers owner Chris Ilitch seems to favor keeping Skubal and signing him to a fair-market deal. However, with Skubal just one year away from free agency, it appears almost impossible for them to sign him before he gets there. As much as I personally think they should trade Skubal for the biggest haul possible and then try to re-sign him in free agency, it sounds more like they’ll keep him and try to win this year and then deal with him in the open market next winter.
I think that approach is too risky for the long term and could set the organization back, as it did for the Angels when they didn’t trade Shohei Ohtani and just got back draft pick compensation. For what it’s worth, the Tigers are listening to offers but don’t seem motivated to get serious on trading him.
On the other hand, it appears the Brewers are not only listening on Peralta, but they are also considering all offers at this point. It seems likely now that he will be moved because he’s a top-five Cy Young Award finisher and will pitch on a very affordable $8 million salary for 2026, making his trade value that much higher than expected.
Trade trends
Takeaway: Trade talks focused on young major-league talent rather than prospects
Several GMs told me that this year’s meetings included more trade talks than they could remember from past meetings, which should lead to a lot of deals in December and January. Most striking was that almost all of the trade talk had to do with proposed major-leaguer-for-major-leaguer swaps rather than deals involving prospects for major-league players. This left some organizations with strong farm systems looking for major-league help frustrated.
Pirates not serious spenders
Takeaway: The Pirates’ effort on Kyle Schwarber, Josh Naylor was simply eye wash
There were a lot of people celebrating the Pirates for making offers for free agents Schwarber and Josh Naylor. However, once the news got out that they offered Schwarber four years, $125 million and Naylor five years, $80 million, it became clear that the offers were more about being able to say they were willing to spend that money than they were a sincere attempt to get the player. They knew even if they offered the exact same money each player eventually got or even $5 to $10 million more for each player, they weren’t going to get either one.
For a non-contending team like the Pirates, if they want to sign stars like Schwarber and Naylor away from their playoff teams, they have to grossly overpay or they’ll never get them. It’s what the Nationals did with Jayson Werth and the Tigers with Magglio Ordonez and Pudge Rodriguez. Both teams ended up eventually in the World Series.
My point is this: The Pirates’ offer for Schwarber should have been six years, $180 million to $200 million; and for Naylor, six years, $120 million. Even then, it’s unlikely the players would have signed, but at least it would have given the players and their families something to think about. Once the Pirates become the highest bidder on a big free agent, only then will we know they mean business. For now, it’s just eye wash.
Another trade deadline?
Takeaway: Agents are now clamoring for a winter trade deadline
There were several agents in the lobby suggesting that MLB consider instituting a winter trade deadline because they felt trade talks were hampering their negotiations with free agents. I chuckled at the idea because of course they would like that. If there were a Dec. 10 trade deadline, it would shut down all trades until spring training, and then the only way the clubs could improve would be through bidding wars for free agents. That scenario would only help their clients get better deals.
If you’re going to throw out a winter trade deadline, then a free-agent deadline has to go with it, and neither is going to happen. It’s like suggesting a salary cap without a floor; it just doesn’t work — you need both.
Signing Edwin Díaz is another example of how the Dodgers are in their own space from a spending level. (Justin Casterline / Getty Images)
Dodger dominance
Takeaway: The Dodgers have now separated themselves from other large-market teams
The Los Angeles Dodgers should change their name to the World Dodgers because that’s what they are now — a team with a worldwide following. They are now in a completely different category from other large-market teams such as the Yankees, Mets, Phillies and Red Sox. They are now in a market of their own called the “Massive Market.” Their CBT tax alone this year will be higher than 16 teams’ entire payrolls. At this moment, they are arguably the most successful sports franchise in history.
They also have one of the smartest baseball executives on the planet leading them in Andrew Friedman. Signing the league’s best closer, Díaz, plugged the team’s biggest hole. That done, now he’ll focus on a corner outfielder to put his dynasty of a team on track to be the favorite for a three-peat. The Dodgers are winning because they make smart decisions from top to bottom, and they are helped by having more financial resources than any other team — and they aren’t afraid to spend them.
Last year, the Dodgers committed $72 million over four years to Tanner Scott as the closer. It didn’t work, so now they have dropped another $69 million for Díaz. If they make a mistake — which they rarely do — they can quickly cover it up with the checkbook because they are the only member of the Massive Market.
Braves building up
Takeaway: Atlanta doing a solid job of building roster depth
The Braves have done an excellent job building depth on their major-league roster with a quality fifth infielder in Mauricio Dubón, who can play second base, shortstop and third base, protect them from injuries and allow them to rest their starters. They also did a great job in landing Mike Yastrzemski as their fourth outfielder. He crushes right-handed pitching and can play all three outfield positions, with most of his playing time expected in left field on days in which Jurickson Profar DHs.
To top that all off, I loved the signing of Robert Suarez on Thursday to a three-year, $45 million pact. The Braves said incumbent closer Raisel Iglesias will stay in that role, but regardless of whether Suarez pitches in the eighth or the ninth, he and Iglesias give the Braves a dominant presence at the end of the game.
Now, if the Braves can just re-sign shortstop Ha-Seong Kim and add another starter, they’ll put themselves in a strong position to be a playoff team again in 2026.
Blue Jays aren’t done
Takeaway: Toronto has more moves coming
The Blue Jays got the free-agent signings started early when they landed Dylan Cease on a seven-year, $210 million deal with a net present AAV of around $26 million per season. Now they are focused on signing either Tucker or Bichette and remain in play for a reliever like Pete Fairbanks. They know they were inches from a World Series championship and are determined to do what it takes to win it all in 2026.
Nationals solid start
Takeaway: Team president Paul Toboni’s first trade was a “win,” which now could delay his second trade
Toboni’s first trade as president of the Washington Nationals didn’t involve household names. However, it was a significant trade for him and the organization and a true “win” for the franchise. He traded left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer for top catching prospect and 2021 first-round pick Harry Ford and right-handed pitcher Isaac Lyon. I love Ferrer’s arm — he has a 99-mph fastball from the left side with tremendous sink and a high ground ball rate with solid secondary pitches in a slider and changeup that he’ll get to use more as a member of the Mariners. He could even develop into a top-tier closer someday. So, the deal is probably good for both sides.
That said, the Nationals getting Ford, who was blocked by Cal Raleigh, was a coup. Ford has great makeup, studies the game and is a .400 on-base-percentage hitter with 15-20 home run power and a chance to develop into a quality catcher like the Dodgers’ Will Smith. On top of that, to get another pitcher thrown in the deal was amazing, because even straight-up, it would have been a good deal for them.
However, sometimes when a rookie head of baseball operations makes his first trade and does it well, those team leaders expect all trades to be the same going forward, and that just won’t be the case. Trades are supposed to be equal and help both teams either in the short or long term.
Next on the agenda for Toboni is trading left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has two years of control remaining. Teams are lining up, with more than a dozen clubs making inquiries. It’s only a matter of time before Gore is dealt, and it will be interesting if Toboni can do as well in this trade as he did in his first one.
