The Miami Dolphins’ playoff picture looks extremely, even extraordinarily, dim following the Sunday results of Week 15, but it’s also well defined.
Simply put, for the Dolphins to be able to return to the playoffs this season after a one-year absence, the Dolphins have to win their final four games — against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium on Monday night, at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers the next two weeks, and against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the season finale on the weekend of January 4-5 — and get some help.
Getting to a final record of 10-7 would be impressive for the Dolphins regardless of what it produced because it would signify a season-ending eight-game winning streak.
Any loss by the Dolphins over the final four games will eliminate them from the playoffs, meaning they could be done as early as late Monday evening if they fall against the Steelers.
But a 10-7 record alone won’t be enough to get the Dolphins into the playoffs even if it could match other AFC playoff hopefuls because they just are in bad shape in terms of tiebreakers.
THE DOLPHINS’ PATH TO THE PLAYOFFS
The Dolphins will go into their game at Pittsburgh in 10th place in the AFC standings, with means they have to jump three spots to get into the seventh place for the last playoff berth.
There are five teams the Dolphins mathematically cannot beat out for a playoff spot because they either have more than 10 wins already or have 10 wins and have clinched tiebreakers against Miami by virtue of head-to-head results or conference records.
Those five teams are the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers along with the AFC North champions (because division winners automatically earn a playoff spot).
There are four teams ahead of the Dolphins that they could catch, and those are the Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens.
But the Ravens do NOT factor into the Dolphins’ playoff equation for this simple reason: For the Dolphins to make the playoffs, they have to win at Pittsburgh on Monday night. That would leave the Steelers at 7-7, the same record as Baltimore. Those two teams face each other in Week 18, meaning the loser of that game will have at least eight losses, therefore can’t beat out a Miami team that finishes 10-7.
So that leaves the Bills, Texans and Colts, and the Dolphins have to surpass two of them to make the playoffs.
This is where it gets tough because Buffalo already is 10-4 and therefore has to go 0-3 for the Dolphins to catch the Bills and overtake them in a tiebreaker (division record), and Buffalo’s closing schedule includes a game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 and at home against the New York Jets in Week 18.
Even though Houston is 9-5, the Texans also would have to lose out for Miami to catch them because Houston would get the tiebreaker if both teams ended up 10-7 on the basis of better conference record. And this is where we have to point out that before ending the season at the L.A. Chargers and at home against Indianapolis, Houston plays host to the woeful Las Vegas Raiders next Sunday, that same Raiders team that has lost eight in a row and is tied for worst record in the NFL at 2-12.
The Colts have an 8-6 record and games remaining against the San Francisco 49ers, Jacksonville and Houston. The Dolphins need for Indy to lose at least two of those games because — here we go again — the Colts would win a tiebreaker with the Dolphins if both teams are at 10-7.
HOW THE DOLPHINS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS
So here’s the summation:
For the Dolphins to make the playoffs:
— Miami MUST go 4-0 in their final four games (at PIT, CIN, TB, at NE)
— Two of the following three things must happen:
• Buffalo loses its final three games (at CLE, PHI, NYJ)
• Houston loses its final three games (LV, at LAC, IND)
• Indianapolis loses at least two of its final three games (SF, JAX, at HOU)
