Fifty NFL coaches and executives made Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow unanimous Tier 1 choices in the 2025 Quarterback Tiers entering this season.
Update: In the past week, Burrow said, “There is not a team in the NFL that would have won the game today if I was the quarterback,” while Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury in a defeat that assured his Kansas City Chiefs, like Burrow’s Bengals, would miss the playoffs.
We’ll use the opportunity to revisit preseason QB Tiers results, comparing where each player ranked among voters in August to where they rank in EPA per pass play through 15 weeks of the season.
Tiers voters look beyond stats, of course. They would not necessarily change their votes, especially for established top-tier players such as Burrow and Mahomes, but this can still be an instructive exercise. How production aligns with perception matters.
For example, the New England Patriots’ Drake Maye, who debuted in Tier 3 after a generally encouraging rookie season, ranks No. 1 in EPA per pass play so far this season. He’s obviously going to rise in the 2026 QB Tiers.
We’ll revisit each tier below, highlighting one preseason quote from a voter for each tier and providing updated thoughts.
Note: Only players who appeared in the 2025 QB Tiers (which excludes rookies and backups) and have at least 100 dropbacks this season are included below. Players remain in the tier and order in which they were ranked before the season.
Tier 1 revisited
Tier definition: A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure-passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.
Preseason quote to note: “Mahomes has the Brady seat now, until someone proves otherwise. Last year, I saw a headline saying something to the effect of, ‘Mahomes’ worst year to date, and the Chiefs are undefeated.’ This is when this guy is too good for his own good.” — NFL offensive coordinator
The Brady-Mahomes comparison aligned more than Mahomes would have hoped. Like Brady, Mahomes suffered a season-ending knee injury in his ninth season. Brady suffered his injury in Week 1 in 2008, giving him more time to heal for the next season.
Mahomes has been a unanimous Tier 1 selection in 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024 and 2025. Will that change after a few relatively down statistical seasons, his first losing season and a major injury that could affect his mobility?
In past years, some withheld Tier 1 votes for Burrow over durability concerns. That could become a factor for more voters in the future after Burrow missed nine games this season.
Matthew Stafford and Lamar Jackson earned Tier 1 status in 2025 for the first time in their careers.
Stafford has validated those votes by becoming the MVP front-runner for a Los Angeles Rams offense that ranks first in EPA per play (0.14), touchdowns per game (3.8) and first downs per game (23.5).
Jackson’s status in the top tier could be tenuous. A hamstring injury sidelined him for three games. Jackson is taking sacks on a career-high 10.7 percent of pass plays, more than double his rate last season. He has negative EPA per pass play for only the second time in his career. His overall EPA per play, which counts designed rushes, is a career low.
Tier 2 revisited
Tier definition: A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure-passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
Preseason quote to note: “You will see this year if it is the coordinator or the quarterback, but I think it has been more the quarterback than advertised.” — NFL team exec on Jared Goff, whose Lions lost offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago in the offseason.
Goff’s EPA per pass play has declined 27 percent from last season (0.27 to 0.20), but it’s still the second-highest of his career and fourth-best in the NFL this season. Are the Lions as good offensively without Johnson? No, but they’ve had other issues, including along the offensive line, and Goff is still producing at a top-five level statistically.
Herbert remains a fascinating study. He has slipped from 36 Tier 1 votes in 2022 to 29, 19 and 13 over the three subsequent seasons. There are real reasons beyond Herbert’s control that his statistical production remains out of line with his Tiers standing. If the Chargers fail to advance in the playoffs once again, will voters strongly weigh major issues on the offensive line, including the absence of both starting tackles? Or have voters reached a point with Herbert where they simply think a Tier 1 QB would have accomplished more regardless?
Prescott and Love have been productive enough to move higher within the tier. Love could conceivably command top-tier votes if he can lead the Packers on a deep playoff run. His EPA per pass play (0.22) is second in the NFL and fifth-best among Packers quarterbacks since 2000, per TruMedia — 2011 Aaron Rodgers leads at 0.40, followed by 2014 Rodgers (0.34), 2020 Rodgers (0.28), 2004 Brett Favre (0.24) and then Love this season.
Daniels’ second season has been a reverse of his first, highlighting durability concerns that followed him into the league. Seventeen voters placed him in Tier 1, betting he would play that way in 2025. Instead, the Patriots’ Maye is the 2024 first-round QB in line to command top-tier votes in 2026.
Purdy’s durability concerns will work against him after he missed eight games. Some might also point to the team’s relative success with backup Mac Jones as evidence that the system is what matters most for San Francisco. However, the 49ers ranked 19th in offensive EPA per play with Jones in the lineup. They rank fifth since Purdy returned (tight end George Kittle’s return was another factor).
Tier 3 revisited
Tier definition: A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.
Preseason quote to note: “He is a game manager who is going to turn the ball over and can’t carry it. Even when the team is good, you are always going to feel like we don’t quite have the guy.” — NFL coach on Geno Smith
Of the three top-five picks earning top dollar on second contracts, only Trevor Lawrence has a shot at climbing out of the third tier. The other two, Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray, were either benched outright (Tagovailoa) or benched effectively (Murray).
The Patriots’ Maye is looking like a lock to jump into Tier 2 next season. Lawrence’s recent uptick in production could get him back into the second tier, but how he finishes will matter.
Bo Nix and Caleb Williams will be fun to discuss. Both are winning. Both are avoiding costly mistakes. Neither is dominating.
Nix ranks first and Williams third in the lowest percentage of pass plays or designed QB runs resulting in a sack, interception or lost fumble. But Williams ranks 31st in completion rate (58 percent) among 32 quarterbacks with at least seven starts this season. Nix ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt among the same group.
In Las Vegas, Geno Smith and new Raiders coach Pete Carroll were supposed to make the Raiders competitive right away. Instead, this is the second-worst Raiders team in franchise history, better than only the 1961 version, according to Pro Football Reference’s Simple Rating System. Smith is guaranteed $18.5 million of his $26.5 million salary in 2026.
Tier 4 revisited
Tier definition: A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player (not enough information for voters to classify) or a veteran who ideally would not start all 17 games.
Preseason quote to note: “A couple years ago, Jones was probably worthy of being a 3. He still might be that. He has to show it.” — NFL defensive coordinator on Daniel Jones
Jones’ first season with the Colts ended in disappointment when he suffered a torn Achilles tendon, but he appears well-positioned to jump back into Tier 3 regardless. Even at his best with Indy, Jones fit the Tier 3 definition perfectly as a legit starter needing a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win, with the pure dropback game minimized.
The others in Tier 4 either won’t be part of the picture in 2026 or, as in the case of J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix Jr., might still fit the Tier 4 description.
