It was all there in front of them, their first AFC East title since the days of Tom Brady; the chance to be frontrunners for the AFC’s No. 1 seed; and the opportunity to put their rival Buffalo Bills’ playoff hopes in limbo.
It was all there, and the New England Patriots blew it, along with the 21-0 lead they had built over the Bills on Sunday. Perhaps the Patriots can still bounce back and regain all that they may have lost in Sunday’s 35-31 defeat, but it’s hard not to see the collapse as a huge missed opportunity.
That’s especially true because the team they’re competing with for the No. 1 seed, the Denver Broncos, kept on rolling Sunday by knocking off the Green Bay Packers 34-26. With their 11th straight victory, the Broncos, who became the first AFC team to clinch a playoff berth, now sit firmly in the driver’s seat to earn the first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
Meanwhile, over in the NFC, the Los Angeles Rams maintained their perch atop the conference with a 41-34 win over the Detroit Lions. The Rams, too, have punched their ticket to the postseason, though they’re still not clear of their NFC West rival Seattle Seahawks, who matched the Rams’ 11-3 record with a comeback win over the Colts. The Rams-Seahawks clash coming this Thursday night in Seattle will now have massive playoff implications.
But before we get to that game, let’s take a look at what else happened around the NFL in Week 15:
Listed odds to make the playoffs, win the division and secure the No. 1 seed are all via The Athletic’s NFL Projection Model, created by Austin Mock. Seven teams from each conference make the playoffs, with the top seed in each conference securing a first-round bye. Go check out our NFL Playoff Simulator to play out your favorite team’s path to the playoffs.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos were the first AFC team to clinch a playoff berth Sunday when they knocked off the Packers; they also established a one-game cushion over the Patriots for the No. 1 seed. They’ve still got a tricky road ahead with a pair of playoff opponents (Jaguars, Chargers) over their final three games, but they’re both at home, where the Broncos have won 12 in a row. The Broncos have also clinched the tiebreaker over the Patriots, so it’d take a steep stumble to fall from the top seed.
Last three weeks: vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
New England Patriots
The Patriots blew a 21-0 lead against the Bills, coughing up a chance to clinch their first AFC East title since 2019 and giving away a crucial opportunity in the race for the No. 1 seed. They’re still a game clear of the Bills and hold the tiebreaker with a superior division record, so the Patriots can still wrap up the AFC East if they beat the Jets and Dolphins, regardless of what happens next week in Baltimore. For the Patriots to steal the top seed, however, they’ll need to win out with the Broncos dropping two of their final three.
Last three weeks: at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars kept pace with the surging Texans in the AFC South by dominating the Jets for their fifth consecutive win. The Jags have averaged 32.9 points per game since Week 9, second-most to the Rams over that span. It was always going to take at least half a season before quarterback Trevor Lawrence felt comfortable enough in coach Liam Coen’s offense, and it’s evident the evolution is happening. The Jaguars’ upcoming game against the Broncos will have massive implications on the race for the AFC’s top three seeds.
Last three weeks: at Broncos, at Colts, vs. Titans
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers, who host the Dolphins on Monday night, need a win to stay a game ahead of the Ravens in the AFC North. That might not sound like much now, with the Steelers holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over their hated division rivals, but it’ll matter soon. As it stands, both the Steelers and Ravens can win the North by running the table, with that Week 18 showdown in Pittsburgh an obvious candidate for the Sunday Night Football season finale.
Last four weeks: vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Browns, vs. Ravens
Los Angeles Chargers
Short of clinching a division title or playoff berth, the Chargers just claimed one of the most important regular-season victories in franchise history by eliminating the Chiefs from playoff contention. They’ve still got serious work ahead of them to get into the postseason, but the Chargers should feel confident about that remaining slate after back-to-back wins against the reigning Super Bowl participants. And since the Chargers allowed an average of 30.7 points per game from Weeks 4-6, they’ve held opponents to 20 or fewer points in six of their last seven, including 15.3 points per tilt over their past three.
Last three weeks: at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos
Buffalo Bills
The Bills responded to a 21-0 deficit to the Patriots with a … 28-3 run? Quarterback Josh Allen didn’t just suck the life out of a bloodthirsty Gillette Stadium — he might also have taken the MVP award from Drake Maye. Allen led the Bills on five consecutive touchdown drives to pull off a 35-31 victory and resuscitate their hopes for a sixth consecutive AFC East title. Meanwhile, the Patriots had two possessions to retake the lead in the final seven minutes, and they couldn’t even muster a first down, with five of their last seven plays failing to gain a yard.
Last three weeks: at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
Houston Texans
After a breakneck stretch against the Bills, Colts and Chiefs, the Texans downshifted Sunday and still blew out the Cardinals, 40-20. The Texans are also a full game ahead of the Colts, who have lost four in a row and just turned to a 44-year-old high school coach to play quarterback. Meanwhile, the Texans are riding a six-game winning streak that features two victories (Jaguars, Bills) against teams in the playoff field.
Last three weeks: vs. Raiders, at Chargers, vs. Colts
In the hunt
- Indianapolis Colts (8-6)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-7)
- Miami Dolphins (6-7)
Eliminated
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-10)
- New York Jets (3-11)
- Cleveland Browns (3-11)
- Las Vegas Raiders (2-12)
- Tennessee Titans (2-12)
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams held off a desperate Lions team Sunday and pushed a recent NFC power to the brink of elimination, dialing up a small dose of revenge after the Lions bounced them from the playoffs a couple of years ago. Now, the Rams have a far more important task Thursday in Seattle, where they’ll attempt to sweep the series with the Seahawks — the Rams’ last opponent with a winning record. If the Rams survive the Seahawks, they’ll essentially be duking it out with the Bears for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Rams have a one-game edge, but a loss in their last two games would leave them vulnerable to the Bears in the tiebreaker against NFC opponents, if such a tiebreaker became necessary.
Last three weeks: at Seahawks, at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
Chicago Bears
The Bears felt like they left some meat on the bone in Week 14 when they dropped a 28-21 decision in Green Bay, but they’ve got a chance to split the series this week at home. Remember, the Packers knocked the Bears out of the top seed last week, and they’re now trying to defend the No. 2 seed. Let’s see how this physically imposing Bears front handles a Packers front seven that lost linebacker Micah Parsons to a knee injury.
Last three weeks: vs. Packers, at 49ers, vs. Lions
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles snapped their three-game losing streak with a 31-0 destruction of the Raiders, and they appear safely tucked into the No. 3 seed. While they could theoretically leapfrog the Bears or Packers, it would likely require their third four-game winning streak of the season for that to materialize, and the Eagles’ recent bouts of inconsistency haven’t inspired the same level of confidence the team has earned in past seasons.
Last three weeks: at Commanders, at Bills, vs. Commanders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is shaping up to be like 2014 (Panthers) or 2022 (Bucs), when the NFC South champion had a losing record. The Bucs have lost five of six, including two in a row against sub-.500 teams, and they blew a 28-14 fourth-quarter lead to the Falcons on Thursday night. Alas, the Panthers held serve Sunday by giving away a 17-7 third-quarter lead to the Saints, and they fell behind the Bucs based on record against common opponents. Now, the Bucs and Panthers can really decide the division on the field when they meet twice over the final three weeks.
Last three weeks: at Panthers, at Dolphins, vs. Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks survived a lethargic offensive showing Sunday with an 18-16 victory against the Colts, but they won’t get away with a similar performance Thursday in their biggest game of the season against the Rams. And they know from experience. The Seahawks have won eight of nine, with the 21-19 loss to the Rams in Week 11 as the lone blemish. Quarterback Sam Darnold threw four interceptions in that game — as many as he’s thrown in the eight wins over that stretch — and the Seahawks don’t want to be thinking “what if” yet again. If the Seahawks beat the Rams, they’ll take a huge step toward their first NFC West title since 2020 and the No. 1 seed. But if they falter, they’d need to win out and have the Rams lose out to claim the division.
Last three weeks: vs. Rams, at Panthers, at 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers feel like the most overlooked 10-win team in the league, but so it goes for a team stuck looking up at the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West. The Niners have a chance to pull into a tie with the loser of this week’s Rams-Seahawks showdown, and they’ve split their series with the Rams and can sweep the Seahawks in Week 18. The 49ers’ closing pair against the Bears and Seahawks will show who they are at this point. Since their 4-1 start, they’re 0-3 against teams in the current playoff field and 6-0 against everyone else.
Last three weeks: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
Green Bay Packers
The Packers blew a 23-14 third-quarter lead in Denver, as an offense that opened with five consecutive scoring drives closed with three points, two interceptions, two turnovers on downs and one punt in a pear tree over its final six possessions. And the defense was similarly ineffective, giving up three straight touchdowns and losing linebacker Micah Parsons to a knee injury. The Packers are still comfortably ahead of the Lions, who lost to the Rams, and will get into the postseason with any combination of two wins or Lions losses.
Last three weeks: at Bears, vs. Ravens, at Vikings
In the hunt
- Detroit Lions (8-6)
- Carolina Panthers (7-7)
- Dallas Cowboys (6-7-1)
Eliminated
- Minnesota Vikings (6-8)
- Atlanta Falcons (5-9)
- Washington Commanders (4-10)
- New Orleans Saints (4-10)
- Arizona Cardinals (3-11)
- New York Giants (2-12)
