Last week, two of the NFL MVP favorites were on a collision course, and one came out definitively the victor. Check on your Boston friends.
Josh Allen was third in the odds at a distant +1400 to Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford. But after Allen and Maye took to the same field, the odds changed, even though the order did not. It’s still Stafford (-300 odds), Maye (+400) and Allen (+500) at the top, and then an absolute cliff before the next favorite with Jordan Love at +8000.
But Allen has surged from an implied probability of just under 6 percent to 16 percent. Maye’s, on the other hand, dropped from a 33 percent likelihood to 20 percent.
But maybe the real question is: Can Maye or Allen actually challenge Stafford at this point? What would it take? Or is it Allen who has all the momentum at the right time?
Let’s take a look at the odds and break down what’s happened in just a week.
Live NFL MVP odds
With the Los Angeles Rams riding a Week 15 victory over the Detroit Lions that clinched the first NFC playoff spot, Stafford’s odds reached a new level with a 75 percent implied probability of claiming the award. The Rams are the favorites to win the Super Bowl, too, at +350 (implied 22.22 percent likelihood), and are one of just two teams in the entire league that have a playoff berth cemented already heading into the final stretch of the season.
Next up, an NFC West rivalry rematch in Seattle, where the Rams are just 1-point favorites. Could a dominant performance in that game effectively seal up the MVP for Stafford? He certainly has a watertight case as a former Super Bowl winner who has performed lights-out in his 17th season and has never won the regular-season MVP. Tough to argue with that.
Unless a massive shakeup happens, which is unlikely at this point in the season, the only two contenders to challenge Stafford’s spot are Allen and Maye.
Maye’s odds may have taken a hit on Sunday, but the fact remains that the Patriots acquitted themselves well in a respectable 35-31 loss. Maye had a tougher game through the air than he’s used to (14-of-23 for just 155 yards and one interception), but accrued 43 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns.
But Allen was the standout. The Bills responded to a 21-0 deficit against the Patriots with 28 unanswered points and five straight touchdown drives. Allen finished with 193 passing yards, three TDs and zero interceptions. As The Athletic’s Jacob Robinson put it, “he’s the league’s best player when it matters most.” In fourth-quarter play, Allen leads all QBs in EPA per dropback, passing yards, rush yards and completions of 20-plus.
If the Bills run the table, they could still win the AFC East. And their next matchup should help that case, as they are 10-point favorites over the Cleveland Browns, whereas the Patriots are 3-point underdogs in Baltimore. As long as the game in Cleveland doesn’t prove to be a trap, the Bills’ biggest upcoming challenge should be the Eagles the following week. They finish the year at home vs. the New York Jets.
The Patriots, though, don’t have too tough a schedule either. After the game in Baltimore, they play the Jets and Dolphins.
It should be a close contest to the very end. Get out your popcorn.
