The NBA’s trade deadline is Feb. 5.
So why, here in mid-December, are we pontificating about some of the more high-profile situations that might lead to a season-changing deal? Because, as of Monday, the vast majority of players who signed contracts in the offseason are eligible to be traded.
The proverbial pie of possibilities expands, in other words, with all sorts of additional scenarios suddenly in play. At minimum, the date typically sparks a significant increase in trade talks around the league and serves as a precursor to the roster fireworks to come. That is, of course, unless the historic pace of the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder (on track for a league-record 78 wins) hasn’t scared their rivals into inaction.
Here’s how I see five of the more intriguing storylines around the association.
Giannis and his Milwaukee mess
Even after the Bucks’ stunning win over the Boston Celtics on Thursday, it’s getting quite messy in Milwaukee. Messier, rather.
After a summer’s worth of discussion about whether Giannis Antetokounmpo would stay or go, and the revelation that he showed serious interest in joining the New York Knicks before those trade talks went nowhere, the Bucks now find themselves in their nightmare scenario. They’ve lost 10 of their last 13 games (and 14 of their last 21), with Antetokounmpo having missed seven games during that stretch. Worse, he’s not expected back anytime soon after going down with a strained right calf on Dec. 3 that, as Bucks coach Doc Rivers sees it, will likely keep him out through early January.
Cue the massive uptick in discussion about his end in Milwaukee finally nearing.
Yet so long as Antetokounmpo continues to play this in-between game when it comes to what he truly wants, rather than making the kind of public trade demand that tends to expedite matters in times like these, rival executives will continue to believe that his situation might have to be handled in the offseason. The stress that comes with the regular-season schedule typically dissuades even the most motivated of superstar shoppers from doing a major deal before the summer. What’s more, the fact that teams know the specific status of their draft picks by then makes it easier to assign true value to the involved assets.
Then again, everything is subject to change when there are still two months left on the trade-season calendar. If Antetokounmpo applies serious pressure at some point, the pipes might start bursting in Milwaukee, and the sweepstakes will start in earnest.
As one hopeful executive pointed out, the fact that Antetokounmpo can likely control his destination because of his contract status (he can opt out in the summer of 2027) means everyone is unofficially on standby until he clarifies that vital component. The only team that has been truly identified as a desired destination for Antetokounmpo to this point is the Knicks.
But even that possibility comes with serious obstacles. As I reported in early October, the Knicks made it clear in those aforementioned talks that they weren’t willing to go all-in for Antetokounmpo, in large part, because they truly believed they can contend for a title as currently constructed. If you’re not willing to discuss Jalen Brunson for a player of Antetokounmpo’s caliber, then you’re simply not serious about the possibility.
Fast forward two months, and the Knicks have won 15 out of 19 games while sitting near the top of the Eastern Conference (they’re two games behind the first-placed Detroit Pistons). That sort of stretch isn’t likely to change their stance anytime soon.
The Thunder have more than enough draft assets in storage, and talent on their roster, to get a deal done. But in case you haven’t noticed, the reigning champions are on pace to become the best regular-season team of all time. If that doesn’t qualify as an if-it-ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it situation, I don’t know what does.
The San Antonio Spurs could also make a very attractive pitch, with the prospect of Victor Wembanyama and Antetokounmpo sharing a frontcourt potentially terrifying the rest of the NBA. But two familiar issues emerge with that scenario: 1) There is no hard evidence that Antetokounmpo wants to play there, and 2) the Spurs — much like the Thunder and Knicks — are playing so well (nine wins in 12 games with Wembanyama sidelined by a calf strain; 17-7 overall) that the urgency to go after Antetokounmpo midseason might not be there.
The same calculus applies to the Houston Rockets, who could put a package together to pair Antetokounmpo with Kevin Durant but don’t appear to have the motivation — at the moment, anyway — because of their immense belief in the younger core (Alperen Şengün, Amen Thompson et al).
The Toronto Raptors, who would be quite formidable with Antetokounmpo and Scottie Barnes side by side, have a similar quandary. The list goes on from there, with oft-cited longshots like the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors also facing complications.
But what if one of the (non-New York) suitors that has reason to believe that Antetokounmpo might be willing to stay with their team for the long term makes the sort of Godfather offer that longtime Bucks general manager Jon Horst can’t refuse? The Miami Heat, for example, are often handicapped by league insiders as a place that Antetokounmpo might be willing to call his new basketball home. Pat Riley and company could offer the Bucks a yacht full of draft assets, all their best young players (All-Star Tyler Herro, promising young big man Kel’el Ware, small forward Jaime Jaquez Jr.) and salary filler (Terry Rozier, if the NBA allows it) to make the numbers work.
Yet as we’ve learned many times before, Horst tends to move in silence when it comes to trades of major significance (reminder: the man set up a secret office inside the Bucks’ locker room to avoid his co-workers, and keep it all hush-hush, while working on the Damian Lillard deal). That means there’s no clarity about how he sees the potential packages from the various suitors who are so often discussed. It’s worth remembering, however, that Horst signed an extension in April and thus has the organizational backing that should inspire a certain level of fortitude in negotiations. You simply can’t lose a player of that magnitude without the return being good enough to forge a pathway to a promising new era.
With Giannis’ intentions still unclear and Horst’s view of the trade landscape equally unknown, it’s messy and mysterious in Milwaukee.
Will the Timberwolves make a move to bolster their roster around Anthony Edwards? (Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images)
Anthony Edwards needs help, but will he get it?
At first glance, you might think there had been a level of panic within the Minnesota Timberwolves during their somewhat-sluggish start.
After reaching the Western Conference finals for the second consecutive time, they started the season just 10-8 before winning five of their past six games (they’re 15-9; sixth in the West). For a team that has legitimate title-contending aspirations, and a franchise centerpiece in Anthony Edwards who was looking to take yet another leap, that’s enough to cause some concern. Except for one thing: They’ve been here before.
The T-Wolves started just 8-10 last season, and were just 13-11 at this same 24-game mark, before finding their groove in the second half (they won 17 of their last 20 games after starting 32-29). Translation: They aren’t about to make an ill-advised move in response to the early returns.
Still, president of basketball operations Tim Connelly has been one of the most aggressive executives in the league for quite some time. As evidenced by the Durant pursuit in the summer, when the Timberwolves took a long, hard look at bringing him to town before he was traded to the Rockets, Connelly always seems to be in on the big stuff. More recently, the Timberwolves were among those teams monitoring the Ja Morant situation with the Memphis Grizzlies (though that move appears very unlikely). And lest anyone forget, his controversial choice to bring Rudy Gobert to Minnesota in the summer of 2022 had everything to do with the team success that came next.
The Timberwolves’ due-diligence approach will likely lead to all sorts of rumors about their squad between now and the deadline, with most of them involving point guards. To that end, the Chicago Sun-Times reported this week that Minnesota inquired about Chicago Bulls point guard Coby White. Our Jon Krawczynski reported that there’s “nothing cooking” there right now in terms of active talks.
A Wolves source confirmed that there is legitimate interest in White, but the 25-year-old’s looming free agency appears to be a significant hindrance to a possible trade. He’s making $12.8 million in the final year of his deal and is widely expected to seek a major raise this summer. But the fear of that unknown, it seems, means this is the kind of “rental” situation that drops the price point precipitously and creates a negotiating gap between the two sides.
If there’s another cold streak in Minnesota when early February rolls around, however, those phones will most certainly heat up. And Connelly, even more than most, is always willing to take a call.
The Mavericks’ post-Nico Harrison plan
When Nico Harrison’s ill-fated tenure as Dallas Mavericks general manager ended in early November, the speculation about what his firing might mean for Anthony Davis’ future was almost instant.
Mark Cuban — the former majority owner (and current minority owner) whose voice matters again now in his role as adviser to owner Patrick Dumont — told our Joe Vardon that Davis wasn’t going anywhere.
“We want to try to win,” Cuban wrote via e-mail.
Yet as our Christian Clark reported, the Mavericks — whose front office is now headed by co-interim general managers Matt Riccardi and Michael Finley — have signaled a willingness to listen to any and all offers that might help them build around their prized No. 1 pick, Cooper Flagg. So amid all that mixed messaging, will Davis be on the move? There’s no way of knowing yet.
As optics go, it’s fair to wonder how Dumont might react if the market isn’t kind to Davis’ value. After all, this is the player who was dealt for Luka Dončić. Expectations might be unrealistically high for the potential return. And the chances of (even more) fan discontent are quite high if it’s not what they, or the organization’s stakeholders, had hoped for.
Davis’ contract status is certainly providing a pressure point. Davis — who is represented by Klutch Sports CEO Rich Paul — is eligible for an extension this summer (his current deal runs through next season, with a player option for $62.7 million in 2027-28). That’s a major consideration for both the Mavs and the expected suitors, which — as ESPN first reported — are expected to include Detroit, Atlanta and Toronto. Yet as several league sources indicated, the actual level of interest from the aforementioned teams remains to be seen. Especially given Davis’ sordid health history.
In that regard, these past two weeks have been a step in the right direction. After returning from the Nov. 28 left calf strain that cost him 14 games, he has averaged 18.4 points, 10.2 rebounds and two blocks in five games.
Dallas, meanwhile, has won four of its last five games and — somehow, some way — finds itself in Play-In position (10th) despite its woeful record (9-16). If you squint hard enough, you can imagine a world in which Kyrie Irving returns from his torn ACL late in the season and the Mavs enjoy a better-late-than-never version of what Harrison envisioned when he made the Dončić deal.
As one league source shared, there are even some indications that the Mavericks are still considering upgrading this current core rather than parting with their veterans. Time will tell if there’s anything feasible on that front, or if this becomes the fire sale that so many have predicted.
Sacramento is selling, but will anyone buy?
The wayward Kings, if you somehow haven’t heard, are open for business with their roster of mismatched pieces.
Yet as is the case with so many other teams, the realities of the market might provide a sobering dose of reality once we get closer to dealing time. The Kings’ Zach LaVine, for starters, could certainly help several contending teams. To that point, league sources confirmed that Milwaukee has done recent due diligence on the 30-year-old guard (and has shown interest in the past).
But his exorbitant salary — $47.4 million this season and a player option for $48.9 million next season — makes it nearly impossible to move him without attaching some sort of sweetener (draft assets) in return. And therein lies the challenge for first-year Kings general manager Scott Perry.
As of now, Perry has signaled a commitment to retaining the draft picks that he hopes will play a pivotal part in their rebuild. If that stance remains, then there’s a very real chance that this veteran core — LaVine, Domantas Sabonis, DeMar DeRozan, Malik Monk et al — could remain past the deadline. On a related note, it should come as no surprise that Perry made a plea for fan and organizational patience when we discussed his long-term outlook recently.
For Sabonis’ part, league sources say the 29-year-old big man has heeded that call for patience. His contract runs through the 2027-28 season, with a combined $94 million owed in the next two seasons, meaning his market is inevitably limited by the sheer magnitude of the money owed.
Teams like Washington, the Phoenix Suns and Chicago have shown significant interest in the past and are still believed to be on his short list of possible suitors, but Sabonis is prepared to remain in a Kings jersey for the foreseeable future. He has been out since Nov. 19 with a partial tear of his left meniscus and was scheduled to be re-evaluated within the next week.
Beyond Sacramento’s core, fourth-year guard Keon Ellis remains the most talked-about trade target among rival teams. Never mind that his league-wide value doesn’t reconcile with the way he’s used by Kings coach Doug Christie (he has played 20-plus minutes just once in the past 11 games and had a DNP-Coaches’ Decision in that span).
Teams around the league seem more interested in Keon Ellis than the Kings are. (Kelley L Cox / Imagn Images)
The real question, however, is whether the Kings’ price point for moving him will be so steep that it makes a deal hard to reach. It remains possible that Ellis and the Kings find a win-win proposition on the extension front (he’s eligible as of Feb. 9).
If the Kings (6-19) continue down this losing track, there could be a payoff for all that pain in the form of their 2026 first-round draft pick. AJ Dybantsa, anyone?
The Jonathan Kuminga dilemma
No story about trade targets is complete without discussing Golden State’s Jonathan Kuminga.
Never mind that he’s not eligible to be moved until Jan. 15. There are Kuminga-related dynamics worth analyzing in the here and now — some familiar, and some not so much.
The Kings are widely expected to revisit their offseason interest in Kuminga, and it remains to be seen if that’s the case for teams like Phoenix and Chicago that have been intrigued by him before. But the New Orleans Pelicans, in many ways, are front and center in this discussion.
Let me explain.
For quite some time now, the Warriors have been open about their desire to acquire the Pelicans’ Trey Murphy III. But if they’re going to use Kuminga to do that, then it would be helpful to know how, if at all, the Pelicans value the Warriors’ 23-year-old forward. For the time being, the feedback is mixed on that front. ’Tis the season for smokescreens, after all.
Yet this part is indisputable when it comes to the Warriors’ side of the equation: These past six weeks have not been kind when it comes to Kuminga’s value. After the first six games of the season when Kuminga was receiving rave reviews, he has returned to the rollercoaster existence that embodied the vast majority of his first four seasons.
His DNP-CD in Golden State’s win over Chicago on Sunday raised eyebrows all around the league, with coach Steve Kerr explaining afterward that the combination of Jimmy Butler’s return from injury and the hot hands in their (non-Kuminga) second unit played a major part.
To Kuminga’s credit, he took the high road in his postgame comments. Even Steph Curry weighed in on the debate eventually, encouraging Kuminga not to lose his spirit.
For the Pelicans’ purposes, the Warriors’ interest in Murphy underscores the potential impact they’ll have on the trade season league-wide. Despite their record — New Orleans is second-worst in the league at 4-22 — players like Murphy and Herbert Jones are expected to draw major interest from contending teams.
Exhibit A: Our Lakers’ beat writer, Dan Woike, highlighted their interest in Jones this week. At the same time, he cited team and league sources who said the Pelicans are “not interested” in moving Jones.
Fair enough, but let’s circle back for a vibe check in late January.
