Dolphins vs. Steelers prediction, odds, spread: ‘Monday Night Football’ picks from 10,000 simulations

A pair of AFC playoff hopefuls will meet in a pivotal ‘Monday Night Football’ matchup to conclude NFL Week 15 as the Miami Dolphins visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. Miami (6-7) has won six straight, most recently defeating the Jets, 34-10, to get back into postseason contention. Pittsburgh (7-6) is coming off a 27-22 win over Baltimore and sits atop the AFC North. Edge rusher T.J. Watt (lung), guard Andrus Peat (concussion) and cornerback James Pierre (calf) have been ruled out for Pittsburgh. Jaylen Warren (illness) was added to the injury report as questionable on Monday.

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The latest Dolphins vs. Steelers odds from DraftKings Sportsbook have Pittsburgh as 3-point home favorites after the opening line was -3.5, while the over/under for total points scored is 42.5. Before making any Steelers vs. Dolphins picks, be sure to see the NFL predictions from SportsLine’s projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 15 on a 50-35 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.  

Now, the model has zeroed in on Miami vs. Pittsburgh. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Steelers vs. Dolphins:

Why the Dolphins can cover

Winners of four straight, the Dolphins have covered in three of those games and are 7-4 ATS over their last 11 games. Miami’s defense has risen to the occasion as of late, holding each of its last four opponents to 17 points or fewer while also notching 10 takeaways during this stretch. On offense, Mike McDaniel has a rushing unit that ranks fifth in yards per carry and eighth in yards per game. De’Von Achane is on pace for nearly 2,000 scrimmage yards, while Jaylen Wright had 107 yards and a touchdown last week. The Dolphins also get to face a Pittsburgh defense that is reminding no one of the Steel Curtain, as the Steelers rank 27th or worse in total yards allowed, passing defense and third-down defense. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Steelers can cover

This game is in Pittsburgh at night, which plays into the forecast calling for a game time temperature of 25 degrees. That’s relevant because Miami has lost 13 straight games with temps under 40 degrees, as Tua Tagovailoa is 0-8 in his career in such contests. The Dolphins quarterback has had a season to forget, as he leads the NFL with 14 interceptions and now has to face a Pittsburgh defense which has racked up the second-most takeaways (23). As for Aaron Rodgers, he’s coming off a season-high of 284 passing yards and also rushed for his first score since 2022 in last week’s win over Baltimore. He faced the Dolphins twice last year while with the Jets, and the four-time MVP totaled five passing touchdowns and averaged 306.5 yards through the air. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Steelers vs. Dolphins picks

For Dolphins vs. Steelers on ‘Monday Night Football,’ the model is leaning Over the total, projecting 46 combined points. It also says one side of the spread is the better value. See what it is at SportsLine.

Who wins Steelers vs. Dolphins, and which side of the spread is the better value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dolphins vs. Steelers spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 50-35 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.