I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that Week 15 may be the most pivotal weekend of the 2025 regular season. No matter which way you look, there are matchups that could determine division races, playoff spots and overall seeding as we rocket toward the postseason. Depending on how those games unfold, we could be looking at a much different NFL than the one we have today, making it tremendously exciting to watch and bet on.
For instance, Buffalo and New England are effectively playing for the AFC East title, as the Patriots can clinch the division with a win. The Broncos and Rams can also punch their ticket to the playoffs with wins this weekend as well. While those are the clinching scenarios, the high stakes don’t stop there.
The Chiefs and Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives, and a loss would all but put Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson out of contention, which would be a remarkable development.
As we gear up for this action, let’s dive into who I believe will come out on top in these matchups. Below, you can find my picks for every Week 15 contest, starting with my five locks of the week.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
2025 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 37-33-0
ATS: 92-115-1
ML: 128-79-1
Lamar Jackson is 10-2 in his career against the Bengals, and specifically 6-2 in his head-to-heads with Joe Burrow. On the surface, that should give bettors some confidence in Baltimore, right? Well, this isn’t exactly the same Jackson that we’ve come to know and opposing defensive coordinators fear.
The Ravens QB just hasn’t looked right, and that’s been the case for weeks, including during Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh, where he completed just 54.3% of his passes. That inaccuracy has been an issue for the bulk of the year, averaging just a 55.6% completion rate over his last five starts.
As we saw during a 32-14 Bengals win over Baltimore in Week 13, this version of Jackson cannot keep up with Burrow. The Ravens also have not been a trustworthy bet, failing to cover in four straight coming into Week 15, and are just 4-9 ATS on the season.
Projected score: Bengals 27, Ravens 24
The pick: Bengals +2.5
Everyone is going to fade the Broncos after they were burned at the buzzer last week in what was arguably the worst beat of the season against the Raiders. However, don’t let the emotions of that game cloud your judgment here.
The Packers are coming off a last-second win over the Chicago Bears, which thrust them back atop the NFC North and the No. 2 seed in the NFC. They’ve garnered tons of momentum with that victory, which, if you’ve been paying attention to the Packers this season, is exactly the time they give it all back with a loss.
We’ve seen duds from Green Bay at various points this season, and I wonder if we get one here — particularly on the road in a tough environment against one of the best defenses in the NFL. What Denver does well is attacking the quarterback while protecting its own, ranking No. 1 in the league in sacks (55) this season, as well as being tied for the fewest sacks allowed (17).
If Bo Nix has a clean pocket while Jordan Love is under constant pressure, that could open the door for an upset. The Broncos are also a perfect 6-0 straight-up at home this season.
Projected score: Broncos 23, Packers 21
The pick: Broncos +2.5
I love the Philip Rivers return story. It’s so wonderfully random, and I’m genuinely curious to see if he starts on Sunday. Currently, it’s still up in the air whether it will be the 44-year-old Rivers or rookie Riley Leonard who gets the nod against Seattle.
If it’s Rivers, Sunday will mark 1,800 days between starts. Of course, that’s a lot of time, and expecting Rivers to somehow keep it close against a Seattle defense that is second in the league in points per game allowed (17.4), yards per play allowed (4.5) and third down (33% conversion rate) seems too tall a task.
As interesting as Rivers’ comeback story is right now, it could be spoiled by halftime and downright sad by the fourth quarter.
Projected score: Seahawks 30, Colts 16
The pick: Seahawks -13.5
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC | Fubo, try for free)
J.J. McCarthy showed some life against Washington last week, throwing for three touchdowns in a Vikings win. While that may have silenced some doubters momentarily, the jury is still out on the second-year signal-caller, who may have simply been the beneficiary of playing against arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
Dallas did regress last week, allowing 44 points to the Lions, but this defense is still better than what it was earlier in the year and simply ran into a buzzsaw headlined by Jahmyr Gibbs. It should look more like the ascending unit it was in the weeks leading up to that matchup with Detroit here, and I expect Quinnen Williams (eight quarterback hits in his four games with the Cowboys) to keep making his presence felt.
Dallas is also 6-2 ATS in their past eight games following an ATS loss and 4-0 straight-up and ATS as a favorite on the “Sunday Night Football” stage over the past five seasons.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Vikings 17
The pick: Cowboys -6
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC, ESPN | Fubo, try for free)
The Dolphins have played much better in recent weeks, coming into Week 15 riding a four-game winning streak after a 2-7 start to the season. Defensive improvement has primarily sparked the win streak, as the unit is No. 1 in the league in points allowed (13.3), rushing yards per game (192.3) and turnover differential (+7).
With this momentum and Pittsburgh still not exactly looking like a legitimate contender, I think Miami can keep this within the number, especially with the hook on the 3.5-point spread. Can it pull off the outright upset? That’s where I stop short.
Remember what time of year it is. The forecast for Monday’s matchup at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh is expected to be about 19 degrees. The Dolphins have lost 13 straight games that were under 40 degrees at kickoff (including playoffs). The cover is in play, but that’s about it.
Projected score: Steelers 24, Dolphins 21
The pick: Dolphins +3.5
Predicting the entire 2025 NFL playoff bracket and Super Bowl winner as we enter Week 15
John Breech
Rest of the bunch
Falcons at Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 20
The pick: Buccaneers -4.5
Cardinals at Texans
Projected score: Texans 30, Cardinals 21
The pick: Cardinals +9.5
Bills at Patriots
Projected score: Patriots 27, Bills 24
The pick: Patriots +1.5
Browns at Bears
Projected score: Bears 24, Browns 16
The pick: Bears -7.5
Chargers at Chiefs
Projected score: Chargers 24, Chiefs 21
The pick: Chargers +4.5
Raiders at Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 28, Raiders 17
The pick: Raiders +11.5
Jets at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 30, Jets 20
The pick: Jets +11.5
Commanders at Giants
Projected score: Giants 24, Commanders 21
The pick: Giants -2.5
Panthers at Saints
Projected score: Panthers 24, Saints 20
The pick: Panthers -2.5
Lions at Rams
Projected score: Rams 30, Lions 27
The pick: Lions +5.5
Titans at 49ers
Projected score: 49ers 33, Titans 17
The pick: 49ers -12.5
