Bryce Young and the Panthers offense against the Buccaneers blitz-heavy pass rush
Somewhat quietly, Bryce Young has put together a series of stream-worthy starts the last month or so. He’s averaged 19.51 fantasy points per game over his last four contests, and while his floor has been low in tougher matchups, his ceiling has elevated to as high as 31.82 points (against Atlanta). To add to the deliberation, the Buccaneers have been incredibly soft against quarterbacks lately, surrendering 18+ fantasy points to the last six starters they’ve faced, including a combined 48.18 by Tyler Shough and Kirk Cousins the last two weeks. In fact, since Week 10, the only pass defenses surrendering a higher success rate than Tampa Bay’s 51.4% are the Cardinals and Commanders. So can you stream Young in a theoretically good matchup, and can you play the rest of the Carolina offense as well?
The major concern would be Young’s ability to diagnose and dissect Tampa Bay’s pass rush. Todd Bowles’ defense blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league (34.6% of dropbacks) and Young’s Panthers currently own NFL Pro’s fifth-worst efficiency rating against the blitz. The Carolina QB has thrown six TDs to five INTs against the blitz this season, with a 61.2% completion rate, a 79.7 passer rating and -0.30 EPA/dropback. All that said, the Bucs aren’t particularly efficient when blitzing — they’re NFL Pro’s 22nd-ranked pass defense on such dropbacks — and Young has been much better against a standard pass rush. This has the makings of one of Young’s up days, but those are prone to flip without much warning and divisional rivals often incite unpredictable results.
Fantasy Fallout: You should not be forcing Young into lineups, even in this “good” matchup, but he is a viable streamer or a strong 2QB-league option. Tetairoa McMillan falls into a similar bucket, as he’s been inconsistent and low-upside lately: you can start him as a WR2 in a pinch, but can also justifiably get away for someone like DK Metcalf or Jauan Jennings. And the question marks remain at running back, where Carolina appears to be riding the hot-hand between Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard — they’re likely a low-end RB2 and low-end RB3, respectively.
