Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You’ve got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out as the Atlanta Falcons take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football? Let’s dig into FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Best Player Prop Picks for Falcons at Bucs on Thursday Night Football
Darnell Mooney Anytime Touchdown (+340)
At some point, even the players in down years can become a value. I think we’ve hit that point with Darnell Mooney.
Mooney has dealt with injuries since training camp, likely leading to a massively underwhelming year after he was impressive in 2024. There’s no denying things have been rough.
But with Drake London out and Kyle Pitts banged up, Mooney will be involved. His route rate in games London has missed is 91.2%, and he has 2 of the team’s 4 end-zone targets in those games. That’s in addition to the downfield work he is still getting.
I’ve downgraded Mooney as much as I think I can within my projections. Even with that, I have his fair anytime touchdown odds at +290. It’s enough value for me to take the plunge despite Mooney’s results thus far.
Baker Mayfield Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Now that at least his lower half is healthy, Shake and Baker Mayfield is back, baby.
This new version of Mayfield started to emerge last year. He averaged 22.2 rushing yards per game after sitting at just 9.2 through the first eight years of his career.
This year, Mayfield is at 21.9, but that includes a three-game stretch where he didn’t run at all due to a knee injury. Even including that span, he has gone over 18.5 in 7 of 13 games, and it’s 7 of 10 when you exclude the knee injury. Last week was his second biggest output of the season as he turned 6 rushes into 42 yards.
After adjusting for opponent, the Falcons face the most quarterback rush attempts per game (excluding kneeldowns) and the third most explosive quarterback runs per game. With how much is on the line here, I’m expecting Mayfield to pull out all the stops, and that includes attacking with his legs.
Tyler Allgeier Under 28.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
With Kirk Cousins starting, the Falcons clearly want to keep things on the ground. I just don’t know how long and how effectively they’ll be able to do so, putting a lid on expectations for Tyler Allgeier.
In the games Cousins has started, Allgeier has averaged 8.8 carries per game, leading to 25.5 rushing yards. He has gone under 28.5 in 2 of those 4 with one of the exceptions coming in a win against the New Orleans Saints.
Tonight, the Falcons are 4.5-point underdogs, though that number has come down throughout the week. Unfortunately for Allgeier’s ideal game script — where the Falcons are in front — the Buccaneers’ offense is starting to get healthy weapons again. That increases the odds the Bucs lead and the Falcons have to air it out.
It’s also a tough team to run on. The Bucs are sixth against the run in numberFire’s schedule-adjusted metrics. They rank third in running back success rate allowed and sixth in explosive run rate, both adjusted for schedule. It leads to teams throwing against them on early downs at a rate of 56.5%, above the league average of 52.6%.
Allgeier is a good threat to score, and I’m actually in line with his touchdown odds at +200. That just doesn’t lead to yardage, and his path to a big output there is cloudy given the convergence of factors at play.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
