Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You’ve got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out as the Miami Dolphins take on the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football? Let’s dig into FanDuel Sportsbook’s NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Best Player Prop Picks for Dolphins at Steelers on Monday Night Football
Jaylen Waddle Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+200)
Even in a game with a low total, this number looks too long for Jaylen Waddle.
Since Tyreek Hill’s injury, Waddle has rocked a 26.4% target share with a whopping 54.3% of the targets more than 15 yards downfield. His target share dips to 16.7% in the red zone, but those downfield throws give him an extra route to the end zone.
Waddle has scored in 6 of 13 games this year, a rate of 46.2%. His implied odds at +200 are 33.3%. Due to the low total and the lack of red-zone involvement, my anytime touchdown model isn’t on par with his rate this year, but it does have his fair odds at +180. That’s enough to make him a value with where the market stands.
Jonnu Smith Over 10.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Imagine overlooking the Jonnu Smith revenge game. Couldn’t be me.
Obviously, that’s not the true motivating factor here. It stems more from how unpredictable the Steelers’ tight-end usage is.
They rotate through all three of Smith, Pat Freiermuth, and Darnell Washington seemingly based on matchups with the opposing defense. That can lead to a big Smith night in one game followed by a huge Washington output. That makes each player’s floor of production low, but that’s accounted for in these odds.
Smith’s route rate post-bye is 55.7%, identical to his full-season mark, so he doesn’t seem to have undergone some sort of role shift. The production just hasn’t been there of late, for whatever reason, as he has gone under this mark in four of the past five games.
For this week, specifically, it was unclear whether Washington would clear concussion protocol in time. He eventually did and will suit up tonight, but that ambiguity presents a scenario where Smith becomes a bigger part of the gameplan. With his prop at just 10.5 yards, there’s space for us to bet this over.
De’Von Achane Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
For a decade now, it feels like the Steelers have struggled against dynamic players who can line up all over the formation. That’s the exact archetype of De’Von Achane, and I could see it leading to production in the passing game.
Backs in the same mold as Achane have had success through the air against the Steelers. Breece Hall and James Cook both had 30-plus receiving yards, as did guys like Zavier Scott and Rhamondre Stevenson, who had pass-catching roles at the time of their respective games. Overall, 20.0% of the targets against the Steelers have been to running backs, above the league average of 18.5%.
You could argue that none of those players has a role as big as Achane’s. He has 20.1% of the targets since Hill’s injury and has gone over 25.5 receiving yards in 6 of 13 games this year. That’s not enough to justify an over at -114, but I do think the pass-game reps will tick up in this matchup. Achane’s too big of a chess piece not to lean on with the playoffs still a remote possibility.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
