This season’s MotoGP ridiculous season developments have no chance of unseating the Marc Marquez/Jorge Martin Ducati saga as the top narrative. However, KTM’s decision to add two experienced race winners and strengthen its lineup would have been difficult to overcome in a regular campaign.
The MotoGP 2025 “transfer window” is expected to come to an end with the signing of Maverick Vinales and Enea Bastianini at Tech3, which will have a significant impact on riders and teams both up and down pitlane.
This is how we see the situation now that KTM has made their declaration.
Currently, KTM is pulling (most likely because of ACOSTA)
As the most likely medium-term alternative for any rider to be contesting the Ducati armada week in and week out, the manufacturer was already a sought-after destination going into this season.
Although Acosta’s rides in the early stages of his MotoGP career have altered perceptions of where the RC16’s baseline of performance actually is, the bike hasn’t really made a significant improvement in terms of pure results (140 points in the manufacturer’s standings currently, compared to 135 at the same point last year).
Furthermore, it undoubtedly presented Tech3 in a favorable light. Rather than reflecting on its inconsistent performance with riders during its KTM tenure thus far, Vinales and Bastianini are evidently confident that it can accomplish for them what it did for Miguel Oliveira and Acosta, namely placing them nearly on par with the works team and putting them in the running for grand prix victories.
It is evident how much faith there is in this project that both of them have taken the risk of riding the same bike as Acosta, who has at times this year made KTM’s incumbents look blatantly inadequate.
Binder has to be on the lookout.
When the rider’s representative and their employer disagree about the terms of their contract, it’s never a good indication. In this case, the disagreement concerned whether KTM could move Brad Binder to Tech3 for 2025.
The declaration essentially states that it will not be attempting to do that, but the fact that it was brought up at all shows how difficult Binder has found Acosta to be a stablemate.
Furthermore, Binder is now more disposable than ever at Tech3 due to the addition of two previous grand prix champions. When he’s playing at his best, he should easily defeat Vinales and Bastianini, but if the South African is still not performing at the same level as he once was, it’s not hard to see how one of them may get along well with the RC16 and push Binder down the KTM standings.
The next step for April should be easy.
Whatever explanation is offered, Aprilia will not be happy with losing Vinales, because it will now enter 2025 with tester Lorenzo Savadori serving as the team’s only real constant (Aleix Espargaro is anticipated to be a test rider somewhere).
However, the addition of Jorge Martin signals a bold and prosperous future, so there is less of a need to pad the lineup—good options are still available.
In reality, there has long been a sense that Aprilia would be glad to switch to Marco Bezzecchi, even before Martin became available and before Bastianini signed to KTM. Espargaro had also mentioned him without prompting him as a rider who may be a good fit for the project.
Aprilia would be prudent to conduct a thorough investigation to see whether Bezzecchi’s persistent understeer issues are related to the 2023-spec Ducati he is riding this year, or whether there are more basic issues at play.
In the end, the protégé of Valentino Rossi must be the clear favorite here, although Aprilia can always rely on Fabio Di Giannantonio, his VR46 teammate, or someone like Joan Mir.
PRAMAC DOES NOT HAVE A SWEETENER IN DUCATI.
In order to attempt and convince Ducati to stay, Bastianini and Vinales would have been plausible candidates—possibly the most plausible—to land on a works contract to place at Pramac.
You would think that Martin, who is a serious contender to win Pramac’s riders’ title, would have done the trick. However, he was never going to agree to it, and Marc Marquez’s other tempting choice declined.
Pramac will therefore have known for some time that its chances of contending for a riders’ championship the following year are essentially zero; yet, its possibilities of securing a rider who could at least be a consistent front-runner have also diminished.
Thus, there is no doubt that accepting Yamaha’s generous offer to become their satellite team will result in a less performance penalty than it otherwise could have.
AFTER A CONFUSING EXPERIENCE, THE BRANDING IS OVER.
There had been a lot of recent rumblings that Tech3 was going to drop its Gas Gas identity in 2025. However, the squad was expected to rename to MV Agusta, the venerable Italian manufacturer that is currently part of the Pierer Mobility Group.
Rather, Tech3 merely goes back to being a KTM satellite team, as it was evidently already in practice. When it comes to fan messaging, it’s probably best to remove the distinction that this year’s MotoGP features a satellite team named “Factory.”
However, the press release’s depiction of Tech3 “forming a Red Bull orange quartet” and “going full Red Bull orange” raises a few minor red flags.
Recently, Tech3 has had some amazing liveries, both in the Gas Gas red and in previous liveries. KTM needs to make sure that trend continues, and that the livery designers make sure the paint job is noticeably different, even from a distance, from the Red Bull-driven primary KTM colors.
2027: DAVID ALONSO?
As a result of KTM’s multi-year commitments to Vinales and Bastianini, it appears like recruiting someone from its junior levels is officially out of the question until 2027.
It is true that none of the Moto2 riders who are part of its organization have shown a compelling case, but this is still a significant step given the junior divisions’ well-known toughness.
VR46 protégée Celestino Vietti has performed mediocrely for the first squad. Ajo’s teammate Deniz Oncu, who recently sustained a training injury that might potentially affect the entire season, is a rookie, Jake Dixon is playing against him at his age, and Izan Guevara is still getting used to life in the intermediate class.
However, KTM’s lightweight class roster is captivating, and David Alonso is currently a noteworthy member of the group.
In fact, the Colombian’s present lead in points undervalues the performance advantage over his competitors in Moto3. His performance has been so strong that it is not at all absurd to think that he could be just one Moto2 season away from the top class, or even straight plugged in from Moto3.
However, KTM is benefiting from Acosta’s patience. And this is a blatant indication that it intends to use the same model with its next possible celebrity.
AT LEAST ONE MOTOGP EXIT IS EXPECTED.
Among the riders released by KTM, Augusto Fernandez, a sophomore, doesn’t seem to have any practical chances of staying on the grid; yet, the same could be said of Di Giannantonio last year, and we all know how that ended.
Fernandez’s MotoGP career hasn’t been a wash in any case, but no club has made a pitch to him based on his 2024 performance thus far. This is due to his rookie season in 2023, especially his fourth place finish at Le Mans. Even if the 26-year-old “project” rider has many admirers for his attitude and behavior, he was already an odd selection for the MotoGP, and that will only get him so far.
He would make a fantastic pickup for a World Superbiker. It might also be Jack Miller.
However, Miller will provide a more compelling picture of himself as a development asset to potential MotoGP employers. He was once connected to a possible Honda comeback, taking Joan Mir’s position after her disappointment.
Once more, VINALES CAN GO FOR HISTORY.
Vinales is currently the only rider in the MotoGP era to have won in the premier class on three separate brands thanks to the results of this year’s Grand Prix of the Americas. However, he is only one of five drivers in the history of the Grand Prix, the others being Mike Hailwood, Randy Mamola, Eddie Lawson, and Loris Capirossi.
With four different brands, though, none of them prevailed. And Vinales’s entry at KTM puts him in a position to accomplish that.
He is, arguably, the ideal rider to pursue that milestone; Vinales has never had an issue reaching his pinnacles. Although much will rely on how quickly he adjusts to the RC16, don’t be shocked if he is the one to record this exceptional, nomadic record in the annals of MotoGP history.
THE BIG REUNION OF BASTIANINI.
This year, in just his fourth MotoGP season, Bastianini has shown glimpses of his “old” self once again; yet, 2022 will always be his most memorable campaign.
Alberto Giribuola, the crew chief, oversaw that campaign before leaving to join, you guessed it, KTM.
Although Giribuola played a more senior role in that project, it seems inevitable that he and Bastianini will collaborate once more. It must also have played a role in Bastianini’s decision to jump at the chance, rejecting other offers that would have provided clear continuity or status benefits over a Tech3 position.
SUGGESTIONS FOR HONDA AND YAMAHA
Thus, KTM currently boasts three riders who have won grand prix races; the fourth rider, who hasn’t won, is arguably the best of the bunch. The lineup is insanely entertaining and a clear declaration of intent to take on Ducati, who may currently rank second in terms of depth of strength despite having more motorcycles.
However, it should be even more frustrating for MotoGP’s trailing Japanese manufacturers, who will have to hope that either Vinales or Bastianini completely messes up their RC16 adaptation, or both, or they will need to make major advancements in their own development.
Otherwise, obtaining M1s and RC213Vs in Q2 on any given weekend has become an increasingly difficult task.
No matter how it fills out the remainder of its lineup, Ducati will still field 80% of its riders each weekend, Aprilia will have Martin live there permanently, and KTM now fields four riders who will all be expected to run close to the front.
Theoretically, all of this just intensifies the competition, so Yamaha and Honda will have their hands full if they hope to see any progress in development realized.
It puts even more pressure on Yamaha in particular to increase their one-lap speed.
In the hands of Fabio Quartararo, its race performance is fine, but it will be harder to push Quartararo into respectable grid positions come 2025.
TARGETED WEAK POINTS.
As with any move, there are reasons for Vinales and Bastianini to be pessimistic. However, there are two main causes for hope.
Vinales’s beginnings at Aprilia have severely limited him. Furthermore, he and Bastianini are often known for being far too cautious in first-lap brawls.
However, the RC16 starts almost every time really well—at least when handled by Binder and Miller. KTM may be able to unlock Vinales and Bastianini in a way that none of its competitors could if it can translate that for them and provide them the extra track position they may require in the early going, more than perhaps any other rider on the grid.
